AI Match Analyzer: probabilities, value and confidence score
For every analysed match: probability per outcome, fair odds, gap versus bookmaker odds and a confidence score. Every analysis is kept in a public track record.
Analyses are for information only and do not guarantee any result.
No upcoming match matches these filters.
Engine v2
What Pronos AI does, with the numbers
Walk-forward tested on 4,806 matches (5 leagues, 3 seasons). We kept what genuinely improves the probabilities and removed the rest.
Best calibrated probabilities
Consensus of dozens of bookmakers, margin removed with the power method that corrects the favourite / longshot bias. Log loss 0.9668 versus 0.9676 for the classic removal and 0.9897 for a statistical model alone.
Expected goals and correct scores
Goal expectations are fitted to the 1X2 and over/under 2.5, then turned into a score matrix, both teams to score, margins and clean sheets. All markets are consistent with one another.
Value measured, not guessed
A bet is only tracked if the best recorded price beats the fair price by at least 2.5% (maximum odds 5, gaps above 10% discarded as recording errors). Backtest: 161 bets, +9.7% yield, average CLV +2.8%, last season negative.
A transparent second opinion
Our team model (goals and shots on target) is shown next to the market. When it disagrees we say so, and we remind you that the market is right more often.
Method
How the AI analyses a match
Four steps, always in the same order. The output is a numerical estimate, not a promise.
- 01
Collection
Results, shots on target and odds from dozens of bookmakers across five leagues (Ligue 1, Premier League, La Liga, Serie A, Bundesliga), with three seasons of history.
- 02
Probabilities
The bookmaker consensus has its margin removed with the power method, which corrects the favourite / longshot bias. It is the best calibrated reference in our tests.
- 03
Goals and scores
Goal expectations are fitted to those probabilities, then turned into correct scores, over/under and both teams to score. A team model (goals + shots on target) acts as a second opinion.
- 04
Value and tracking
A bet is only tracked if the best price beats the fair price by at least 2.5%. Every bet is settled publicly with its CLV: the price taken compared with the closing price.
Reading
Reading a value bet
Value measures the gap between the offered odds and the model's estimate. It takes one line to compute.
Formula
value % = (bookmaker odds × model probability) − 1
A positive value means the odds pay more than the model deems likely. A negative value means the opposite: the odds are below the fair price (1 / probability) and the model sees no reason to bet.
Applied to the sample card's figures
Paris Saint-Germain vs Olympique de Marseille · outcome X · Draw
- Bookmaker odds
- 4.47
- Model probability
- 24 %
- Fair odds
- 4.17
- 1 / 0.24
- Implied prob.
- 22,4 %
- 1 / 4.47
- Computed value
- +7,3 %
- (4.47 × 0.24) − 1
The bookmaker odds (4.47) are above the fair odds (4.17): the formula confirms a value of +7,3 % on this outcome. To reach a value of +8% with a probability of 24 %, you would need odds of at least 4.50 (1.08 / 0.24).
FAQ
Frequently asked questions
What the analyses do, and what they do not.
No. An analysis is a probability estimate, not a certain prediction. Even a well-identified value bet loses regularly: the edge, if there is one, only shows over a large number of bets. No result is guaranteed.
They are produced by a statistical model from match data (form, home and away results, head-to-head record, goals scored and conceded, xG when available). The model is described in the section "How the AI analyses a match".
Value appears when the odds offered by a bookmaker are higher than the model's fair odds (1 divided by the estimated probability). The displayed percentage equals (bookmaker odds × model probability) − 1. It depends entirely on how accurate the estimated probability is.
Every published analysis is kept, winner or loser, and counted at 1 unit per bet. Settled analyses feed the win rate, the profit in units and the ROI. Sample data is never included in these calculations.
Size your stake before following an analysis
The Game Plan computes your stake from your bankroll, the odds and the estimated probability (flat stake, % of bankroll, Kelly). A value bet without stake management is still a risky bet.
All settled analyses are visible in the public track record.