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Pronos AI

Pronos AI: probabilities, value and confidence score

For every analysed match: probability per outcome, fair odds, gap versus bookmaker odds and a confidence score. Every analysis is kept in a public track record.

View the track recordValue bets of the weekHow it works

Analyses are for information only and do not guarantee any result.

Analyses published247
Model accuracy57,2 %1X2 result correctly predicted over 194 finished matches
Tracked bets settled0only when value exceeds 2.5%
Profit—in units, 1 unit per bet
  • Ligue 1 · 30 Oct, 18:00
    Value N +5,0 %
    Le Havre
    VS
    Paris Saint-Germain
    10 %HAC
    15 %Draw
    75 %PSG
    Exp. goals
    0.9 - 2.7
    Score
    0-2
    Over 2.5
    71%
    BTTS
    57%
    AI index5.5/ 10
    View analysis
  • Ligue 1 · 30 Oct, 18:00
    Nice
    VS
    Rennes
    37 %OGCN
    26 %Draw
    37 %SRFC
    Exp. goals
    1.5 - 1.5
    Score
    1-1
    Over 2.5
    59%
    BTTS
    63%
    AI index8.8/ 10
    View analysis
  • Bundesliga · 30 Oct, 19:30
    Elversberg
    VS
    Mainz
    30 %ELV
    24 %Draw
    46 %M05
    Exp. goals
    1.5 - 1.9
    Score
    1-1
    Over 2.5
    66%
    BTTS
    66%
    AI index6.0/ 10
    View analysis
  • Liga · 30 Oct, 20:00
    Villarreal
    VS
    Espanyol
    69 %VIL
    18 %Draw
    13 %ESP
    Exp. goals
    2.4 - 0.9
    Score
    2-0
    Over 2.5
    66%
    BTTS
    57%
    AI index8.2/ 10
    View analysis
  • Ligue 1 · 30 Oct, 20:05
    Lille
    VS
    Lens
    35 %LOSC
    27 %Draw
    38 %RCL
    Exp. goals
    1.3 - 1.4
    Score
    1-1
    Over 2.5
    50%
    BTTS
    56%
    AI index7.3/ 10
    View analysis
  • Premier League · 31 Oct, 12:30
    Chelsea
    VS
    Manchester United
    53 %CHE
    24 %Draw
    23 %MUN
    Exp. goals
    1.9 - 1.2
    Score
    1-1
    Over 2.5
    61%
    BTTS
    62%
    AI index7.2/ 10
    View analysis
  • Liga · 31 Oct, 13:00
    Levante
    VS
    Atlético Madrid
    17 %LEV
    20 %Draw
    63 %ATM
    Exp. goals
    1.0 - 2.2
    Score
    1-1
    Over 2.5
    63%
    BTTS
    58%
    AI index5.5/ 10
    View analysis
  • Serie A · 31 Oct, 14:00
    Bologna
    VS
    Monza
    57 %BOL
    24 %Draw
    19 %MON
    Exp. goals
    1.8 - 1.0
    Score
    1-0
    Over 2.5
    52%
    BTTS
    51%
    AI index8.3/ 10
    View analysis
  • Bundesliga · 31 Oct, 14:30
    Augsburg
    VS
    Freiburg
    32 %FCA
    24 %Draw
    44 %SCF
    Exp. goals
    1.5 - 1.8
    Score
    1-1
    Over 2.5
    66%
    BTTS
    66%
    AI index6.3/ 10
    View analysis
  • Bundesliga · 31 Oct, 14:30
    Bayer Leverkusen
    VS
    Stuttgart
    54 %B04
    21 %Draw
    25 %VFB
    Exp. goals
    2.3 - 1.6
    Score
    2-1
    Over 2.5
    74%
    BTTS
    71%
    AI index8.5/ 10
    View analysis
  • Bundesliga · 31 Oct, 14:30
    Borussia Mönchengladbach
    VS
    Paderborn
    48 %BMG
    24 %Draw
    28 %PAD
    Exp. goals
    1.9 - 1.4
    Score
    1-1
    Over 2.5
    65%
    BTTS
    65%
    AI index8.7/ 10
    View analysis
  • Bundesliga · 31 Oct, 14:30
    Schalke 04
    VS
    RB Leipzig
    24 %SCH
    24 %Draw
    52 %RBL
    Exp. goals
    1.4 - 2.0
    Score
    1-2
    Over 2.5
    67%
    BTTS
    65%
    AI index7.0/ 10
    View analysis
  • Bundesliga · 31 Oct, 14:30
    Werder Bremen
    VS
    Hoffenheim
    34 %SVW
    24 %Draw
    42 %TSG
    Exp. goals
    1.7 - 1.9
    Score
    1-1
    Over 2.5
    69%
    BTTS
    69%
    AI index6.4/ 10
    View analysis
  • Premier League · 31 Oct, 15:00
    Bournemouth
    VS
    Leeds
    45 %BOU
    27 %Draw
    28 %LEE
    Exp. goals
    1.6 - 1.2
    Score
    1-1
    Over 2.5
    51%
    BTTS
    55%
    AI index8.7/ 10
    View analysis
  • Premier League · 31 Oct, 15:00
    Brentford
    VS
    Nottingham Forest
    47 %BRE
    25 %Draw
    28 %NFO
    Exp. goals
    1.7 - 1.3
    Score
    1-1
    Over 2.5
    56%
    BTTS
    59%
    AI index8.6/ 10
    View analysis
  • Premier League · 31 Oct, 15:00
    Coventry
    VS
    Sunderland
    31 %COV
    27 %Draw
    42 %SUN
    Exp. goals
    1.2 - 1.4
    Score
    1-1
    Over 2.5
    49%
    BTTS
    54%
    AI index7.4/ 10
    View analysis
  • Premier League · 31 Oct, 15:00
    Hull
    VS
    Ipswich
    37 %HUL
    27 %Draw
    36 %IPS
    Exp. goals
    1.4 - 1.4
    Score
    1-1
    Over 2.5
    52%
    BTTS
    57%
    AI index7.9/ 10
    View analysis
  • Premier League · 31 Oct, 15:00
    Manchester City
    VS
    Brighton
    60 %MCI
    20 %Draw
    20 %BHA
    Exp. goals
    2.3 - 1.3
    Score
    2-1
    Over 2.5
    69%
    BTTS
    65%
    AI index6.7/ 10
    View analysis
  • Liga · 31 Oct, 15:15
    Rayo Vallecano
    VS
    Celta Vigo
    40 %RAY
    29 %Draw
    31 %CEL
    Exp. goals
    1.3 - 1.1
    Score
    1-1
    Over 2.5
    45%
    BTTS
    51%
    AI index8.4/ 10
    View analysis
  • Serie A · 31 Oct, 17:00
    Udinese
    VS
    AS Roma
    16 %UDI
    21 %Draw
    63 %ROM
    Exp. goals
    1.0 - 2.1
    Score
    0-2
    Over 2.5
    60%
    BTTS
    55%
    AI index7.8/ 10
    View analysis
  • Premier League · 31 Oct, 17:30
    Tottenham
    VS
    Crystal Palace
    63 %TOT
    21 %Draw
    16 %CRY
    Exp. goals
    2.2 - 1.0
    Score
    1-1
    Over 2.5
    61%
    BTTS
    56%
    AI index6.9/ 10
    View analysis
  • Liga · 31 Oct, 17:30
    Value 1 +2,7 %
    Real Betis
    VS
    Malaga
    73 %BET
    17 %Draw
    10 %MAL
    Exp. goals
    2.5 - 0.8
    Score
    2-0
    Over 2.5
    65%
    BTTS
    52%
    AI index8.5/ 10
    View analysis
  • Bundesliga · 31 Oct, 17:30
    Bayern Munich
    VS
    Borussia Dortmund
    74 %FCB
    15 %Draw
    11 %BVB
    Exp. goals
    3.0 - 1.2
    Score
    3-1
    Over 2.5
    79%
    BTTS
    66%
    AI index8.3/ 10
    View analysis
  • Ligue 1 · 31 Oct, 19:45
    Troyes
    VS
    Le Mans
    41 %TRO
    27 %Draw
    32 %LEM
    Exp. goals
    1.5 - 1.3
    Score
    1-1
    Over 2.5
    53%
    BTTS
    57%
    AI index7.1/ 10
    View analysis
  • Serie A · 31 Oct, 19:45
    AC Milan
    VS
    Inter Milan
    27 %MIL
    25 %Draw
    48 %INT
    Exp. goals
    1.3 - 1.8
    Score
    1-1
    Over 2.5
    59%
    BTTS
    60%
    AI index9.0/ 10
    View analysis
  • Premier League · 31 Oct, 20:00
    Aston Villa
    VS
    Fulham
    50 %AVL
    25 %Draw
    25 %FUL
    Exp. goals
    1.8 - 1.2
    Score
    1-1
    Over 2.5
    57%
    BTTS
    59%
    AI index7.9/ 10
    View analysis
  • Liga · 31 Oct, 20:00
    FC Barcelona
    VS
    Alavés
    90 %BAR
    7 %Draw
    3 %ALA
    Exp. goals
    3.7 - 0.7
    Score
    3-0
    Over 2.5
    81%
    BTTS
    48%
    AI index7.0/ 10
    View analysis
  • Serie A · 1 Nov, 11:30
    Value 2 +2,6 %
    Como
    VS
    Venezia
    76 %COM
    15 %Draw
    9 %VEN
    Exp. goals
    2.7 - 0.9
    Score
    2-0
    Over 2.5
    70%
    BTTS
    55%
    AI index8.5/ 10
    View analysis
  • Liga · 1 Nov, 13:00
    Getafe
    VS
    Sevilla FC
    30 %GET
    32 %Draw
    38 %SEV
    Exp. goals
    0.9 - 1.1
    Score
    1-1
    Over 2.5
    34%
    BTTS
    43%
    AI index8.4/ 10
    View analysis
  • Ligue 1 · 1 Nov, 14:00
    Strasbourg
    VS
    Auxerre
    53 %RCSA
    24 %Draw
    23 %AJA
    Exp. goals
    1.9 - 1.2
    Score
    1-1
    Over 2.5
    61%
    BTTS
    62%
    AI index8.8/ 10
    View analysis
  • Serie A · 1 Nov, 14:00
    Frosinone
    VS
    Torino
    44 %FRO
    24 %Draw
    32 %TOR
    Exp. goals
    1.9 - 1.6
    Score
    1-1
    Over 2.5
    68%
    BTTS
    68%
    AI index6.5/ 10
    View analysis
  • Serie A · 1 Nov, 14:00
    Lazio
    VS
    Cagliari
    68 %LAZ
    20 %Draw
    12 %CAG
    Exp. goals
    2.0 - 0.7
    Score
    1-0
    Over 2.5
    53%
    BTTS
    45%
    AI index7.5/ 10
    View analysis
  • Bundesliga · 1 Nov, 14:30
    Union Berlin
    VS
    FC Cologne
    37 %FCU
    26 %Draw
    37 %KOE
    Exp. goals
    1.5 - 1.5
    Score
    1-1
    Over 2.5
    59%
    BTTS
    61%
    AI index7.3/ 10
    View analysis
  • Liga · 1 Nov, 15:15
    Santander
    VS
    Real Madrid
    8 %SAN
    11 %Draw
    81 %RMA
    Exp. goals
    1.1 - 3.4
    Score
    1-3
    Over 2.5
    82%
    BTTS
    63%
    AI index5.5/ 10
    View analysis
  • Ligue 1 · 1 Nov, 16:15
    Lyon
    VS
    Angers
    70 %OL
    18 %Draw
    12 %SCO
    Exp. goals
    2.4 - 0.9
    Score
    2-0
    Over 2.5
    63%
    BTTS
    53%
    AI index8.6/ 10
    View analysis
  • Ligue 1 · 1 Nov, 16:15
    Paris FC
    VS
    Monaco
    42 %PFC
    26 %Draw
    32 %ASM
    Exp. goals
    1.5 - 1.3
    Score
    1-1
    Over 2.5
    54%
    BTTS
    58%
    AI index8.8/ 10
    View analysis
  • Premier League · 1 Nov, 16:30
    Liverpool
    VS
    Arsenal
    32 %LIV
    27 %Draw
    41 %ARS
    Exp. goals
    1.3 - 1.5
    Score
    1-1
    Over 2.5
    52%
    BTTS
    56%
    AI index8.2/ 10
    View analysis
  • Bundesliga · 1 Nov, 16:30
    Eintracht Frankfurt
    VS
    Hamburg
    62 %SGE
    20 %Draw
    18 %HSV
    Exp. goals
    2.3 - 1.2
    Score
    2-1
    Over 2.5
    68%
    BTTS
    63%
    AI index8.4/ 10
    View analysis
  • Serie A · 1 Nov, 17:00
    Lecce
    VS
    Genoa
    29 %LEC
    31 %Draw
    40 %GEN
    Exp. goals
    1.0 - 1.2
    Score
    0-1
    Over 2.5
    38%
    BTTS
    44%
    AI index8.1/ 10
    View analysis
  • Liga · 1 Nov, 17:30
    Elche
    VS
    Valencia
    41 %ELC
    28 %Draw
    31 %VAL
    Exp. goals
    1.4 - 1.2
    Score
    1-1
    Over 2.5
    49%
    BTTS
    55%
    AI index6.7/ 10
    View analysis
  • Ligue 1 · 1 Nov, 19:45
    Marseille
    VS
    Toulouse
    50 %OM
    24 %Draw
    26 %TFC
    Exp. goals
    1.9 - 1.3
    Score
    1-1
    Over 2.5
    63%
    BTTS
    64%
    AI index9.0/ 10
    View analysis
  • Serie A · 1 Nov, 19:45
    Juventus
    VS
    Napoli
    42 %JUV
    29 %Draw
    29 %NAP
    Exp. goals
    1.4 - 1.1
    Score
    1-1
    Over 2.5
    47%
    BTTS
    51%
    AI index8.5/ 10
    View analysis
  • Liga · 1 Nov, 20:00
    Athletic Bilbao
    VS
    Real Sociedad
    45 %ATH
    26 %Draw
    29 %RSO
    Exp. goals
    1.7 - 1.3
    Score
    1-1
    Over 2.5
    58%
    BTTS
    61%
    AI index7.7/ 10
    View analysis
  • Serie A · 2 Nov, 17:30
    Sassuolo
    VS
    Fiorentina
    34 %SAS
    25 %Draw
    41 %FIO
    Exp. goals
    1.5 - 1.7
    Score
    1-1
    Over 2.5
    61%
    BTTS
    63%
    AI index7.6/ 10
    View analysis
  • Ligue 1 · 2 Nov, 19:45
    Lorient
    VS
    Brest
    39 %FCL
    28 %Draw
    33 %SB29
    Exp. goals
    1.3 - 1.2
    Score
    1-1
    Over 2.5
    47%
    BTTS
    53%
    AI index8.3/ 10
    View analysis
  • Serie A · 2 Nov, 19:45
    Value 2 +5,9 %
    Atalanta
    VS
    Parma
    66 %ATA
    20 %Draw
    14 %PAR
    Exp. goals
    2.1 - 0.9
    Score
    2-0
    Over 2.5
    59%
    BTTS
    52%
    AI index7.4/ 10
    View analysis
  • Premier League · 2 Nov, 20:00
    Newcastle
    VS
    Everton
    42 %NEW
    26 %Draw
    32 %EVE
    Exp. goals
    1.6 - 1.4
    Score
    1-1
    Over 2.5
    57%
    BTTS
    60%
    AI index8.9/ 10
    View analysis
  • Liga · 2 Nov, 20:00
    La Coruna
    VS
    Osasuna
    45 %LAC
    28 %Draw
    27 %OSA
    Exp. goals
    1.4 - 1.0
    Score
    1-1
    Over 2.5
    42%
    BTTS
    49%
    AI index7.4/ 10
    View analysis

Engine v2

What Pronos AI does, with the numbers

Walk-forward tested on 4,806 matches (5 leagues, 3 seasons). We kept what genuinely improves the probabilities and removed the rest.

  • Best calibrated probabilities

    Consensus of dozens of bookmakers, margin removed with the power method that corrects the favourite / longshot bias. Log loss 0.9668 versus 0.9676 for the classic removal and 0.9897 for a statistical model alone.

  • Expected goals and correct scores

    Goal expectations are fitted to the 1X2 and over/under 2.5, then turned into a score matrix, both teams to score, margins and clean sheets. All markets are consistent with one another.

  • Value measured, not guessed

    A bet is only tracked if the best recorded price beats the fair price by at least 2.5% (maximum odds 5, gaps above 10% discarded as recording errors). Backtest: 161 bets, +9.7% yield, average CLV +2.8%, last season negative.

  • A transparent second opinion

    Our team model (goals and shots on target) is shown next to the market. When it disagrees we say so, and we remind you that the market is right more often.

AI track record →

Method

How the AI analyses a match

Four steps, always in the same order. The output is a numerical estimate, not a promise.

  1. 01

    Collection

    Results, shots on target and odds from dozens of bookmakers across five leagues (Ligue 1, Premier League, La Liga, Serie A, Bundesliga), with three seasons of history.

  2. 02

    Probabilities

    The bookmaker consensus has its margin removed with the power method, which corrects the favourite / longshot bias. It is the best calibrated reference in our tests.

  3. 03

    Goals and scores

    Goal expectations are fitted to those probabilities, then turned into correct scores, over/under and both teams to score. A team model (goals + shots on target) acts as a second opinion.

  4. 04

    Value and tracking

    A bet is only tracked if the best price beats the fair price by at least 2.5%. Every bet is settled publicly with its CLV: the price taken compared with the closing price.

Reading

Reading a value bet

Value measures the gap between the offered odds and the model's estimate. It takes one line to compute.

Formula

value % = (bookmaker odds × model probability) − 1

A positive value means the odds pay more than the model deems likely. A negative value means the opposite: the odds are below the fair price (1 / probability) and the model sees no reason to bet.

Applied to the sample card's figures

Paris Saint-Germain vs Olympique de Marseille · outcome X · Draw

Bookmaker odds
4.47
Model probability
24 %
Fair odds
4.17
1 / 0.24
Implied prob.
22,4 %
1 / 4.47
Computed value
+7,3 %
(4.47 × 0.24) − 1

The bookmaker odds (4.47) are above the fair odds (4.17): the formula confirms a value of +7,3 % on this outcome. To reach a value of +8% with a probability of 24 %, you would need odds of at least 4.50 (1.08 / 0.24).

FAQ

Frequently asked questions

What the analyses do, and what they do not.

No. An analysis is a probability estimate, not a certain prediction. Even a well-identified value bet loses regularly: the edge, if there is one, only shows over a large number of bets. No result is guaranteed.

They are produced by a statistical model from match data (form, home and away results, head-to-head record, goals scored and conceded, xG when available). The model is described in the section "How the AI analyses a match".

Value appears when the odds offered by a bookmaker are higher than the model's fair odds (1 divided by the estimated probability). The displayed percentage equals (bookmaker odds × model probability) − 1. It depends entirely on how accurate the estimated probability is.

Every published analysis is kept, winner or loser, and counted at 1 unit per bet. Settled analyses feed the win rate, the profit in units and the ROI. Sample data is never included in these calculations.

Size your stake before following an analysis

The Game Plan computes your stake from your bankroll, the odds and the estimated probability (flat stake, % of bankroll, Kelly). A value bet without stake management is still a risky bet.

Open the Game Plan

All settled analyses are visible in the public track record.