Athletic Bilbao vs Real Sociedad: AI analysis
Analyses are for information only and do not guarantee any result.
AI probabilities
Confidence level
Moderate score: the signals point the same way but some indicators are missing or diverge. Read with caution.
Odds
Odds movement · 1 · ATH
Data unavailable
Expected goals
The match in goals
Goal expectations fitted to the final probabilities (1X2 and over/under 2.5), then turned into markets that are consistent with one another. The fair price has no margin: any higher price is value.
Most likely correct scores
Each cell shows the probability of that score (rows ATH, columns RSO). Beyond 5 goals per team: 1.0%.
Expected goals
Expected total: 3.0 goalsDerived markets
| Market | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 81% | 1.23 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 1.74 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 43% | 2.35 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35% | 2.86 |
| Both teams to score | 61% | 1.65 |
| ATH keep a clean sheet | 27% | 3.73 |
| RSO keep a clean sheet | 19% | 5.32 |
| ATH win by 2+ goals | 24% | 4.17 |
| RSO win by 2+ goals | 13% | 7.63 |
Market consensus versus team model
The corrected consensus is our reference probability. The team model (goals and shots on target, time weighted) is a second opinion.
7-point gap on Athletic Bilbao: the model is more optimistic than the market. Across 4,806 tested matches, following the model against the market lost money. Read it as a lead for analysis, not as a bet.
Over / under 2.5 goals
| Market | Probability | Fair odds | Best odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 1.75 | 1.67 | -4,5 % |
| Under 2.5 goals | 43% | 2.34 | 2.20 | -5,8 % |
Shots on target per game
- Athletic Bilbao
- 4.2 for3.7 against
- Real Sociedad
- 5.2 for5.8 against
Odds checker
Is your price a value bet?
Enter the odds offered by your platform or bookmaker. We compare them with the fair odds for this match.
- Probability
- 44.8%
- Fair odds
- 2.23
Value is an estimated long-run statistical edge, not a guarantee on any single bet.
Data
Match statistics
The data used by the model. Unavailable data is shown as such, never replaced by an estimate.
Recent form
Key: W win, D draw, L loss. Last five matches, oldest to most recent.
Home / Away
- Athletic Bilbao
- 2W 2D 1L at home
- Real Sociedad
- 3W 0D 2L away
Head-to-head
Last 4 meetings: 1 Athletic Bilbao win(s), 2 draw(s), 1 Real Sociedad win(s)
Goals scored
Average per match.
Goals conceded
Average per match.
Expected goals (xG)
Data unavailable
Average xG per match.
Absentees
Data not available
AI analysis
What the model says
Prono Data probabilities: 45% for Athletic Bilbao, 26% for the draw, 29% for Real Sociedad. They come from the bookmaker consensus with the margin removed and the favourite / longshot bias corrected: the best calibrated reference in our tests. Expected goals: 1.7 for Athletic Bilbao, 1.3 for Real Sociedad. Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (7%). Over 2.5 goals at 57%, both teams to score at 61%. As a second opinion, our team model (goals and shots on target, time weighted) gives 52% / 25% / 23%. It differs from the market by 7 points on a Athletic Bilbao win (more optimistic). Historically, when the two disagree, the market is right more often: we show it as a signal worth digging into, not as a bet. Recent form: Athletic Bilbao D-D-D-L-W, 1.3 scored and 1.0 conceded per game, 4.2 shots on target; Real Sociedad L-W-W-W-W, 1.9 scored and 1.8 conceded, 5.2 shots on target. Last 4 meetings: 1 Athletic Bilbao win(s), 2 draw(s), 1 Real Sociedad win(s). No price beats the fair price by at least 2.5%: no tracked bet on this match. Most likely outcome: a Athletic Bilbao win.
Scenarios
Possible scenarios
- 1
Most likely scenario (45%): Athletic Bilbao control the game and win, in an open match with goals at both ends.
- 2
Draw scenario (26%): the two sides cancel each other out; an outcome not to dismiss.
- 3
Upset scenario (29%): Real Sociedad capitalise on an early goal or a weak spell from Athletic Bilbao.
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