Challenge simulator: what are your chances of passing?
A funded account challenge sets a profit target, a maximum daily loss, a maximum overall loss, a minimum number of bets and sometimes a deadline. This simulator replays thousands of challenges with your profile (win rate, average odds, stake, pace) and derives a pass probability, the most frequent failure causes and what that means in attempts and cost. Nothing is promised: everything is computed from the published rules and your own assumptions.
Sports betting involves a risk of financial loss. For adults only.
Your bettor profile
Rules loaded from the platform sheet, profile entered by you.
Expected value per bet: +4.5% per unit staked (break-even win rate at these odds: 52.6%).
Pick a platform, enter your profile and run the simulation.
Assumptions and limits
What the simulator models, and what it ignores
The model is deliberately simple to stay readable. Its results are orders of magnitude, not guarantees.
What is modelled
- Each bet is independent from the others and wins with the entered probability, at the entered average odds. Net gain = stake × (odds − 1), loss = stake.
- The stake is a constant percentage of the current capital, brought within the range allowed by the platform.
- After each bet, the daily loss is checked against the start-of-day capital and the overall loss against the phase's starting capital (fixed threshold). Reaching the limit ends the challenge.
- A phase is passed when the target is reached and the minimum number of bets has been placed. The next phase restarts with capital, bet count and clock reset.
- Without a time limit, the simulation stops at 365 days per phase to bound the computation.
What is not modelled
- Consistency rules: maximum share of profit per bet, simultaneous exposure, minimum odds, caps on low odds or small stakes, minimum active days.
- The real variability of your odds and stake, voided bets, partially refunded odds, correlated runs (same match, same day).
- The uncertainty on your win rate: a 100-bet track record only measures it to within a few points, and those few points change the result a lot.
- Promo codes and discounts: the expected cost uses the pack's list price.
FAQ
Frequently asked questions
About the method, the inputs and how to read the results.
From your real track record: winning bets divided by settled bets, and the average of the odds taken. A sample under 100 bets gives a fragile estimate. Without a track record, test several values and see how much the result moves.
Because the simulation draws random outcomes. The standard error shown under the probability gives the order of magnitude of that variation. Increase the number of simulations to reduce it.
No. A statistical edge improves the odds, but the target, the deadline and the loss limits mean a large share of attempts fail even with a good profile. With a negative expected value, passing mostly depends on luck.
It is an average: pack price multiplied by the expected number of attempts (1 divided by the pass probability). In practice you may pass on the first attempt or chain many more. It does not account for promo codes.
Compare the rules before buying a challenge
Target, drawdown, duration, price: the verified platforms are compared point by point. And to calibrate your stake, the betting plan computes the fraction that fits your edge.