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Prono Data
Serie AItalie
Udinese
VS
AS Roma

Udinese vs AS Roma: AI analysis

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Analyses are for information only and do not guarantee any result.

AI probabilities

16 %UDI
21 %Draw
63 %ROM
UDI win16 %Fair odds 6.27
Draw21 %Fair odds 4.84
ROM win63 %Fair odds 1.58

Confidence level

7.8/ 10

Moderate score: the signals point the same way but some indicators are missing or diverge. Read with caution.

Odds

Bookmaker odds compared with the model's fair odds
OutcomeBookmaker oddsFair oddsImplied prob.Model prob.Edge
1 · UDI5.906.2716,9 %16 %-5,6 %
X · Draw4.504.8422,2 %21 %-5,5 %
2 · ROM1.571.5863,7 %63 %-1,1 %

Fair odds = 1 / model probability. Edge = (bookmaker odds × model probability) − 1. A positive edge means the odds are higher than the model's estimate.

Odds movement · 2 · ROM

Data unavailable

Expected goals

The match in goals

Goal expectations fitted to the final probabilities (1X2 and over/under 2.5), then turned into markets that are consistent with one another. The fair price has no margin: any higher price is value.

Most likely correct scores

Each cell shows the probability of that score (rows UDI, columns ROM). Beyond 5 goals per team: 2.0%.

Most likely correct scores
UDI \ ROM012345
04.29.8107.13.81.6
14.79.19.97.03.71.6
22.24.64.93.51.8·
3·1.51.61.1··
4······
5······
Top scores0-210%1-29.9%0-19.8%1-19.1%0-37.1%

Expected goals

Expected total: 3.1 goals
Udinese0.99
AS Roma2.12

Derived markets

MarketProbabilityFair odds
Over 1.5 goals81%1.23
Over 2.5 goals60%1.67
Under 2.5 goals40%2.50
Over 3.5 goals38%2.65
Both teams to score55%1.82
UDI keep a clean sheet12%8.33
ROM keep a clean sheet37%2.68
UDI win by 2+ goals5.6%17.86
ROM win by 2+ goals40%2.51

Market consensus versus team model

The corrected consensus is our reference probability. The team model (goals and shots on target, time weighted) is a second opinion.

1 · UDI
Corrected consensus16%
Team model21%
X · Draw
Corrected consensus21%
Team model22%
2 · ROM
Corrected consensus63%
Team model56%

7-point gap on AS Roma: the model is more cautious than the market. Across 4,806 tested matches, following the model against the market lost money. Read it as a lead for analysis, not as a bet.

Over / under 2.5 goals

MarketProbabilityFair oddsBest oddsValue
Over 2.5 goals60%1.661.62-2,4 %
Under 2.5 goals40%2.522.40-4,6 %

Shots on target per game

Udinese
4.1 for6.1 against
AS Roma
6.0 for4.3 against

Odds checker

Is your price a value bet?

Enter the odds offered by your platform or bookmaker. We compare them with the fair odds for this match.

Probability
15.9%
Fair odds
6.27
Enter odds above 1 to get the verdict.

Value is an estimated long-run statistical edge, not a guarantee on any single bet.

Data

Match statistics

The data used by the model. Unavailable data is shown as such, never replaced by an estimate.

Recent form

Udinese0W 1D 4L
AS Roma2W 3D 0L

Key: W win, D draw, L loss. Last five matches, oldest to most recent.

Home / Away

Udinese
0W 1D 4L at home
AS Roma
2W 2D 0L away

Head-to-head

Last 4 meetings: 1 Udinese win(s), 0 draw(s), 3 AS Roma win(s)

Goals scored

Average per match.

Goals conceded

Average per match.

Expected goals (xG)

Data unavailable

Average xG per match.

Absentees

Data not available

AI analysis

What the model says

Prono Data probabilities: 16% for Udinese, 21% for the draw, 63% for AS Roma. They come from the bookmaker consensus with the margin removed and the favourite / longshot bias corrected: the best calibrated reference in our tests. Expected goals: 1.0 for Udinese, 2.1 for AS Roma. Most likely scores: 0-2 (10%), 1-2 (10%), 0-1 (10%). Over 2.5 goals at 60%, both teams to score at 55%. As a second opinion, our team model (goals and shots on target, time weighted) gives 21% / 22% / 56%. It differs from the market by 7 points on a AS Roma win (more cautious). Historically, when the two disagree, the market is right more often: we show it as a signal worth digging into, not as a bet. Recent form: Udinese L-L-L-L-D, 1.0 scored and 2.0 conceded per game, 4.1 shots on target; AS Roma D-D-W-D-W, 2.6 scored and 0.9 conceded, 6.0 shots on target. Last 4 meetings: 1 Udinese win(s), 0 draw(s), 3 AS Roma win(s). No price beats the fair price by at least 2.5%: no tracked bet on this match. Most likely outcome: a AS Roma win.

Scenarios

Possible scenarios

  1. 1

    Most likely scenario (63%): AS Roma control the game and win, in an open match with goals at both ends.

  2. 2

    Draw scenario (21%): the two sides cancel each other out; an outcome not to dismiss.

  3. 3

    Upset scenario (16%): Udinese capitalise on an early goal or a weak spell from AS Roma.

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