Celta Vigo vs Alavés: AI analysis
Analyses are for information only and do not guarantee any result.
AI probabilities
Confidence level
High score: the available signals (form, odds, statistics) clearly converge. This qualifies the consistency of the analysis, not a probability of winning.
Odds
Odds movement · 1 · CEL
Data unavailable
Expected goals
The match in goals
Goal expectations fitted to the final probabilities (1X2 and over/under 2.5), then turned into markets that are consistent with one another. The fair price has no margin: any higher price is value.
Most likely correct scores
Each cell shows the probability of that score (rows CEL, columns ALA). Beyond 5 goals per team: 0.2%.
Expected goals
Expected total: 2.4 goalsDerived markets
| Market | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 69% | 1.45 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 42% | 2.38 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 58% | 1.72 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 21% | 4.69 |
| Both teams to score | 48% | 2.10 |
| CEL keep a clean sheet | 37% | 2.67 |
| ALA keep a clean sheet | 25% | 3.97 |
| CEL win by 2+ goals | 22% | 4.57 |
| ALA win by 2+ goals | 9.7% | 10.31 |
Market consensus versus team model
The corrected consensus is our reference probability. The team model (goals and shots on target, time weighted) is a second opinion.
The team model and the market agree within 1 points: the reading of the match is stable.
Over / under 2.5 goals
| Market | Probability | Fair odds | Best odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 42% | 2.38 | 2.20 | -7,7 % |
| Under 2.5 goals | 58% | 1.72 | 1.67 | -3,1 % |
Shots on target per game
- Celta Vigo
- 3.3 for3.8 against
- Alavés
- 4.3 for4.5 against
Odds checker
Is your price a value bet?
Enter the odds offered by your platform or bookmaker. We compare them with the fair odds for this match.
- Probability
- 45.2%
- Fair odds
- 2.21
Value is an estimated long-run statistical edge, not a guarantee on any single bet.
Data
Match statistics
The data used by the model. Unavailable data is shown as such, never replaced by an estimate.
Recent form
Key: W win, D draw, L loss. Last five matches, oldest to most recent.
Home / Away
- Celta Vigo
- 1W 1D 2L at home
- Alavés
- 0W 2D 1L away
Head-to-head
Last 4 meetings: 2 Celta Vigo win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Alavés win(s)
Goals scored
Average per match.
Goals conceded
Average per match.
Expected goals (xG)
Data unavailable
Average xG per match.
Absentees
Data not available
AI analysis
What the model says
Prono Data probabilities: 45% for Celta Vigo, 29% for the draw, 26% for Alavés. They come from the bookmaker consensus with the margin removed and the favourite / longshot bias corrected: the best calibrated reference in our tests. Expected goals: 1.4 for Celta Vigo, 1.0 for Alavés. Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (12%), 0-0 (10%). Over 2.5 goals at 42%, both teams to score at 48%. As a second opinion, our team model (goals and shots on target, time weighted) gives 46% / 29% / 25%. It is in line with the market on this match. Recent form: Celta Vigo D-D-D-W-D, 1.0 scored and 0.8 conceded per game, 3.3 shots on target; Alavés W-L-L-D-L, 1.5 scored and 1.0 conceded, 4.3 shots on target. Last 4 meetings: 2 Celta Vigo win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Alavés win(s). No price beats the fair price by at least 2.5%: no tracked bet on this match. Most likely outcome: a Celta Vigo win.
Scenarios
Possible scenarios
- 1
Most likely scenario (45%): Celta Vigo control the game and win, without necessarily many goals.
- 2
Draw scenario (29%): the two sides cancel each other out; an outcome not to dismiss.
- 3
Upset scenario (26%): Alavés capitalise on an early goal or a weak spell from Celta Vigo.
Compute my stake for this bet
The calculator will be pre-filled with odds of 2.15 and the 45 % probability of outcome 1 · CEL. You set your bankroll and strategy.
Analyses are for information only and do not guarantee any result.
Sports betting involves a risk of financial loss. For adults only.
View the public track record of all settled analyses.