Levante vs Sevilla FC: AI analysis
Analyses are for information only and do not guarantee any result.
AI probabilities
Confidence level
Moderate score: the signals point the same way but some indicators are missing or diverge. Read with caution.
Odds
Odds movement · 2 · SEV
Bookmaker odds for outcome 2 over 4 readings: from 2.56 to 2.56.
Expected goals
The match in goals
Goal expectations fitted to the final probabilities (1X2 and over/under 2.5), then turned into markets that are consistent with one another. The fair price has no margin: any higher price is value.
Most likely correct scores
Each cell shows the probability of that score (rows LEV, columns SEV). Beyond 5 goals per team: 0.2%.
Expected goals
Expected total: 2.5 goalsDerived markets
| Market | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 72% | 1.38 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46% | 2.16 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 54% | 1.86 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25% | 4.03 |
| Both teams to score | 52% | 1.92 |
| LEV keep a clean sheet | 28% | 3.61 |
| SEV keep a clean sheet | 29% | 3.47 |
| LEV win by 2+ goals | 15% | 6.49 |
| SEV win by 2+ goals | 17% | 6.02 |
Market consensus versus team model
The corrected consensus is our reference probability. The team model (goals and shots on target, time weighted) is a second opinion.
9-point gap on Levante: the model is more optimistic than the market. Across 4,806 tested matches, following the model against the market lost money. Read it as a lead for analysis, not as a bet.
Over / under 2.5 goals
| Market | Probability | Fair odds | Best odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 46% | 2.15 | 2.05 | -4,8 % |
| Under 2.5 goals | 54% | 1.87 | 1.80 | -3,6 % |
Shots on target per game
- Levante
- 3.7 for5.8 against
- Sevilla FC
- 4.1 for4.1 against
Data
Match statistics
The data used by the model. Unavailable data is shown as such, never replaced by an estimate.
Recent form
Key: W win, D draw, L loss. Last five matches, oldest to most recent.
Home / Away
- Levante
- 1W 0D 1L at home
- Sevilla FC
- 2W 1D 0L away
Head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: 2 Levante win(s), 0 draw(s), 0 Sevilla FC win(s)
Goals scored
Average per match.
Goals conceded
Average per match.
Expected goals (xG)
Data unavailable
Average xG per match.
Absentees
Data not available
AI analysis
What the model says
Prono Data probabilities: 35% for Levante, 28% for the draw, 37% for Sevilla FC. They come from the bookmaker consensus with the margin removed and the favourite / longshot bias corrected: the best calibrated reference in our tests. Expected goals: 1.2 for Levante, 1.3 for Sevilla FC. Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 0-1 (10%), 1-0 (9%). Over 2.5 goals at 46%, both teams to score at 52%. As a second opinion, our team model (goals and shots on target, time weighted) gives 44% / 27% / 29%. It differs from the market by 9 points on a Levante win (more optimistic). Historically, when the two disagree, the market is right more often: we show it as a signal worth digging into, not as a bet. Recent form: Levante D-W-D-L-L, 1.3 scored and 2.0 conceded per game, 3.7 shots on target; Sevilla FC L-D-W-W-L, 1.4 scored and 1.3 conceded, 4.1 shots on target. Last 2 meetings: 2 Levante win(s), 0 draw(s), 0 Sevilla FC win(s). No price beats the fair price by at least 2.5%: no tracked bet on this match. Most likely outcome: a Sevilla FC win.
Scenarios
Possible scenarios
- 1
Most likely scenario (37%): Sevilla FC control the game and win, without necessarily many goals.
- 2
Draw scenario (28%): the two sides cancel each other out; an outcome not to dismiss.
- 3
Upset scenario (35%): Levante capitalise on an early goal or a weak spell from Sevilla FC.
Compute my stake for this bet
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