Rayo Vallecano vs Athletic Bilbao: AI analysis
Analyses are for information only and do not guarantee any result.
AI probabilities
Confidence level
Moderate score: the signals point the same way but some indicators are missing or diverge. Read with caution.
Odds
Odds movement · 2 · ATH
Data unavailable
Expected goals
The match in goals
Goal expectations fitted to the final probabilities (1X2 and over/under 2.5), then turned into markets that are consistent with one another. The fair price has no margin: any higher price is value.
Most likely correct scores
Each cell shows the probability of that score (rows RAY, columns ATH). Beyond 5 goals per team: 0.4%.
Expected goals
Expected total: 2.7 goalsDerived markets
| Market | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 75% | 1.33 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 2.01 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 50% | 1.99 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28% | 3.60 |
| Both teams to score | 55% | 1.83 |
| RAY keep a clean sheet | 26% | 3.88 |
| ATH keep a clean sheet | 27% | 3.70 |
| RAY win by 2+ goals | 16% | 6.25 |
| ATH win by 2+ goals | 17% | 5.75 |
Market consensus versus team model
The corrected consensus is our reference probability. The team model (goals and shots on target, time weighted) is a second opinion.
10-point gap on Rayo Vallecano: the model is more optimistic than the market. Across 4,806 tested matches, following the model against the market lost money. Read it as a lead for analysis, not as a bet.
Over / under 2.5 goals
| Market | Probability | Fair odds | Best odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 2.00 | 1.91 | -4,5 % |
| Under 2.5 goals | 50% | 2.00 | 1.91 | -4,5 % |
Shots on target per game
- Rayo Vallecano
- 4.6 for5.6 against
- Athletic Bilbao
- 4.7 for3.7 against
Odds checker
Is your price a value bet?
Enter the odds offered by your platform or bookmaker. We compare them with the fair odds for this match.
- Probability
- 35.0%
- Fair odds
- 2.86
Value is an estimated long-run statistical edge, not a guarantee on any single bet.
Data
Match statistics
The data used by the model. Unavailable data is shown as such, never replaced by an estimate.
Recent form
Key: W win, D draw, L loss. Last five matches, oldest to most recent.
Home / Away
- Rayo Vallecano
- 2W 1D 0L at home
- Athletic Bilbao
- 1W 0D 1L away
Head-to-head
Last 4 meetings: 0 Rayo Vallecano win(s), 1 draw(s), 3 Athletic Bilbao win(s)
Goals scored
Average per match.
Goals conceded
Average per match.
Expected goals (xG)
Data unavailable
Average xG per match.
Absentees
Data not available
AI analysis
What the model says
Prono Data probabilities: 35% for Rayo Vallecano, 28% for the draw, 37% for Athletic Bilbao. They come from the bookmaker consensus with the margin removed and the favourite / longshot bias corrected: the best calibrated reference in our tests. Expected goals: 1.3 for Rayo Vallecano, 1.4 for Athletic Bilbao. Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 0-1 (9%), 1-0 (9%). Over 2.5 goals at 50%, both teams to score at 55%. As a second opinion, our team model (goals and shots on target, time weighted) gives 45% / 27% / 28%. It differs from the market by 10 points on a Rayo Vallecano win (more optimistic). Historically, when the two disagree, the market is right more often: we show it as a signal worth digging into, not as a bet. Recent form: Rayo Vallecano L-W-L-W-D, 1.6 scored and 2.3 conceded per game, 4.6 shots on target; Athletic Bilbao L-W-W-D-D, 1.2 scored and 1.0 conceded, 4.7 shots on target. Last 4 meetings: 0 Rayo Vallecano win(s), 1 draw(s), 3 Athletic Bilbao win(s). No price beats the fair price by at least 2.5%: no tracked bet on this match. Most likely outcome: a Athletic Bilbao win.
Scenarios
Possible scenarios
- 1
Most likely scenario (37%): Athletic Bilbao control the game and win, without necessarily many goals.
- 2
Draw scenario (28%): the two sides cancel each other out; an outcome not to dismiss.
- 3
Upset scenario (35%): Rayo Vallecano capitalise on an early goal or a weak spell from Athletic Bilbao.
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