Real Madrid vs Villarreal: AI analysis
Analyses are for information only and do not guarantee any result.
AI probabilities
Confidence level
Moderate score: the signals point the same way but some indicators are missing or diverge. Read with caution.
Odds
Odds movement · 1 · RMA
Bookmaker odds for outcome 1 over 2 readings: from 1.36 to 1.36.
Expected goals
The match in goals
Goal expectations fitted to the final probabilities (1X2 and over/under 2.5), then turned into markets that are consistent with one another. The fair price has no margin: any higher price is value.
Most likely correct scores
Each cell shows the probability of that score (rows RMA, columns VIL). Beyond 5 goals per team: 7.1%.
Expected goals
Expected total: 4.0 goalsDerived markets
| Market | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 91% | 1.09 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 77% | 1.30 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 23% | 4.33 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 58% | 1.74 |
| Both teams to score | 66% | 1.52 |
| RMA keep a clean sheet | 31% | 3.27 |
| VIL keep a clean sheet | 5.7% | 17.54 |
| RMA win by 2+ goals | 52% | 1.92 |
| VIL win by 2+ goals | 4.8% | 20.83 |
Market consensus versus team model
The corrected consensus is our reference probability. The team model (goals and shots on target, time weighted) is a second opinion.
8-point gap on Real Madrid: the model is more cautious than the market. Across 4,806 tested matches, following the model against the market lost money. Read it as a lead for analysis, not as a bet.
Over / under 2.5 goals
| Market | Probability | Fair odds | Best odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 77% | 1.30 | 1.29 | -0,8 % |
| Under 2.5 goals | 23% | 4.33 | 3.80 | -12,3 % |
Shots on target per game
- Real Madrid
- 7.6 for4.4 against
- Villarreal
- 6.6 for3.7 against
Data
Match statistics
The data used by the model. Unavailable data is shown as such, never replaced by an estimate.
Recent form
Key: W win, D draw, L loss. Last five matches, oldest to most recent.
Home / Away
- Real Madrid
- 3W 0D 0L at home
- Villarreal
- 1W 2D 1L away
Head-to-head
Last 4 meetings: 4 Real Madrid win(s), 0 draw(s), 0 Villarreal win(s)
Goals scored
Average per match.
Goals conceded
Average per match.
Expected goals (xG)
Data unavailable
Average xG per match.
Absentees
Data not available
AI analysis
What the model says
Prono Data probabilities: 72% for Real Madrid, 15% for the draw, 13% for Villarreal. They come from the bookmaker consensus with the margin removed and the favourite / longshot bias corrected: the best calibrated reference in our tests. Expected goals: 2.9 for Real Madrid, 1.2 for Villarreal. Most likely scores: 2-1 (8%), 3-1 (8%), 2-0 (7%). Over 2.5 goals at 77%, both teams to score at 66%. As a second opinion, our team model (goals and shots on target, time weighted) gives 64% / 19% / 17%. It differs from the market by 8 points on a Real Madrid win (more cautious). Historically, when the two disagree, the market is right more often: we show it as a signal worth digging into, not as a bet. Recent form: Real Madrid W-L-W-W-L, 2.6 scored and 1.1 conceded per game, 7.6 shots on target; Villarreal L-L-L-W-W, 1.9 scored and 1.7 conceded, 6.6 shots on target. Last 4 meetings: 4 Real Madrid win(s), 0 draw(s), 0 Villarreal win(s). No price beats the fair price by at least 2.5%: no tracked bet on this match. Most likely outcome: a Real Madrid win.
Scenarios
Possible scenarios
- 1
Most likely scenario (72%): Real Madrid control the game and win, in an open match with goals at both ends.
- 2
Draw scenario (15%): the two sides cancel each other out; an outcome not to dismiss.
- 3
Upset scenario (13%): Villarreal capitalise on an early goal or a weak spell from Real Madrid.
Compute my stake for this bet
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