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LigaEspagne
Villarreal
1 - 2Final score
Real Betis

Villarreal vs Real Betis: AI analysis

Void

Analyses are for information only and do not guarantee any result.

AI probabilities

51 %VIL
24 %Draw
25 %BET
VIL win51 %Fair odds 1.98
Draw24 %Fair odds 4.13
BET win25 %Fair odds 3.96

Confidence level

8.4/ 10

High score: the available signals (form, odds, statistics) clearly converge. This qualifies the consistency of the analysis, not a probability of winning.

Odds

Bookmaker odds compared with the model's fair odds
OutcomeBookmaker oddsFair oddsImplied prob.Model prob.Edge
1 · VIL1.931.9851,8 %51 %-1,6 %
X · Draw4.004.1325,0 %24 %-4,0 %
2 · BET3.803.9626,3 %25 %-5,0 %

Fair odds = 1 / model probability. Edge = (bookmaker odds × model probability) − 1. A positive edge means the odds are higher than the model's estimate.

Odds movement · 1 · VIL

Data unavailable

Data

Match statistics

The data used by the model. Unavailable data is shown as such, never replaced by an estimate.

Recent form

Villarreal1W 2D 2L
Real Betis4W 0D 1L

Key: W win, D draw, L loss. Last five matches, oldest to most recent.

Home / Away

Villarreal
0W 0D 1L at home
Real Betis
1W 0D 1L away

Head-to-head

Last 4 meetings: 1 Villarreal win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 Real Betis win(s)

Goals scored

Average per match.

Goals conceded

Average per match.

Expected goals (xG)

Data unavailable

Average xG per match.

Absentees

Data not available

AI analysis

What the model says

The model expects 1.9 goals for Villarreal and 1.2 for Real Betis. It gives Villarreal a 51% chance, the draw 24% and Real Betis 25%, blending its own estimate (54% / 23% / 23%) with the de-vigged market probabilities (50% / 25% / 26%). Recent form: Villarreal W-D-D-L-L, 1.5 scored and 2.0 conceded per game; Real Betis W-W-W-L-W, 1.3 scored and 1.3 conceded. Last 4 meetings: 1 Villarreal win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 Real Betis win(s). The offered odds are in line with the estimated probabilities: no value, so no tracked bet on this match. The model's favourite is a Villarreal win. Expected total goals: 3.1 (over 2.5 at 60%, both teams to score at 60%).

Scenarios

Possible scenarios

  1. 1

    Most likely scenario (51%): Villarreal control the game and win, in an open match with goals at both ends.

  2. 2

    Draw scenario (24%): the two sides cancel each other out; an outcome not to dismiss.

  3. 3

    Upset scenario (25%): Real Betis capitalise on an early goal or a weak spell from Villarreal.

Compute my stake for this bet

The calculator will be pre-filled with odds of 1.93 and the 51 % probability of outcome 1 · VIL. You set your bankroll and strategy.

Analyses are for information only and do not guarantee any result.

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