Napoli vs Frosinone: AI analysis
Analyses are for information only and do not guarantee any result.
AI probabilities
Confidence level
Low score: the signals are contradictory or incomplete. The analysis is published for transparency, without any particular conviction.
Odds
Odds movement · 1 · NAP
Bookmaker odds for outcome 1 over 2 readings: from 1.44 to 1.44.
Expected goals
The match in goals
Goal expectations fitted to the final probabilities (1X2 and over/under 2.5), then turned into markets that are consistent with one another. The fair price has no margin: any higher price is value.
Most likely correct scores
Each cell shows the probability of that score (rows NAP, columns FRO). Beyond 5 goals per team: 3.3%.
Expected goals
Expected total: 3.4 goalsDerived markets
| Market | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 84% | 1.18 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 65% | 1.53 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 35% | 2.88 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 43% | 2.30 |
| Both teams to score | 57% | 1.76 |
| NAP keep a clean sheet | 37% | 2.72 |
| FRO keep a clean sheet | 9.4% | 10.64 |
| NAP win by 2+ goals | 45% | 2.22 |
| FRO win by 2+ goals | 4.9% | 20.41 |
Market consensus versus team model
The corrected consensus is our reference probability. The team model (goals and shots on target, time weighted) is a second opinion.
25-point gap on Napoli: the model is more cautious than the market. Across 4,806 tested matches, following the model against the market lost money. Read it as a lead for analysis, not as a bet.
Over / under 2.5 goals
| Market | Probability | Fair odds | Best odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 66% | 1.53 | 1.50 | -1,7 % |
| Under 2.5 goals | 34% | 2.90 | 2.70 | -7,0 % |
Shots on target per game
- Napoli
- 4.2 for4.4 against
- Frosinone
- 5.6 for5.2 against
Data
Match statistics
The data used by the model. Unavailable data is shown as such, never replaced by an estimate.
Recent form
Key: W win, D draw, L loss. Last five matches, oldest to most recent.
Home / Away
- Napoli
- 1W 0D 1L at home
- Frosinone
- 1W 1D 0L away
Head-to-head
Data unavailable
Goals scored
Average per match.
Goals conceded
Average per match.
Expected goals (xG)
Data unavailable
Average xG per match.
Absentees
Data not available
AI analysis
What the model says
Prono Data probabilities: 68% for Napoli, 18% for the draw, 14% for Frosinone. They come from the bookmaker consensus with the margin removed and the favourite / longshot bias corrected: the best calibrated reference in our tests. Expected goals: 2.4 for Napoli, 1.0 for Frosinone. Most likely scores: 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (10%), 1-0 (9%). Over 2.5 goals at 65%, both teams to score at 57%. As a second opinion, our team model (goals and shots on target, time weighted) gives 43% / 25% / 32%. It differs from the market by 24 points on a Napoli win (more cautious). Historically, when the two disagree, the market is right more often: we show it as a signal worth digging into, not as a bet. Recent form: Napoli W-L-L-W-D, 1.4 scored and 1.2 conceded per game, 4.2 shots on target; Frosinone L-W-W-D-W, 1.8 scored and 0.8 conceded, 5.6 shots on target. No price beats the fair price by at least 2.5%: no tracked bet on this match. Most likely outcome: a Napoli win. Caution: at least one team has few observed matches, so the model's second opinion is fragile.
Scenarios
Possible scenarios
- 1
Most likely scenario (68%): Napoli control the game and win, in an open match with goals at both ends.
- 2
Draw scenario (19%): the two sides cancel each other out; an outcome not to dismiss.
- 3
Upset scenario (14%): Frosinone capitalise on an early goal or a weak spell from Napoli.
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