Marseille vs Paris Saint-Germain: AI analysis
Analyses are for information only and do not guarantee any result.
AI probabilities
Confidence level
Low score: the signals are contradictory or incomplete. The analysis is published for transparency, without any particular conviction.
Odds
Odds movement · 2 · PSG
Bookmaker odds for outcome 2 over 2 readings: from 1.38 to 1.38.
Expected goals
The match in goals
Goal expectations fitted to the final probabilities (1X2 and over/under 2.5), then turned into markets that are consistent with one another. The fair price has no margin: any higher price is value.
Most likely correct scores
Each cell shows the probability of that score (rows OM, columns PSG). Beyond 5 goals per team: 4.9%.
Expected goals
Expected total: 3.7 goalsDerived markets
| Market | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 89% | 1.13 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 71% | 1.41 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 29% | 3.45 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 50% | 2.00 |
| Both teams to score | 61% | 1.64 |
| OM keep a clean sheet | 7.3% | 13.70 |
| PSG keep a clean sheet | 35% | 2.86 |
| OM win by 2+ goals | 4.4% | 22.73 |
| PSG win by 2+ goals | 50% | 2.00 |
Market consensus versus team model
The corrected consensus is our reference probability. The team model (goals and shots on target, time weighted) is a second opinion.
28-point gap on Paris Saint-Germain: the model is more cautious than the market. Across 4,806 tested matches, following the model against the market lost money. Read it as a lead for analysis, not as a bet.
Over / under 2.5 goals
| Market | Probability | Fair odds | Best odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 71% | 1.41 | 1.38 | -2,2 % |
| Under 2.5 goals | 29% | 3.43 | 3.20 | -6,8 % |
Shots on target per game
- Marseille
- 5.0 for5.3 against
- Paris Saint-Germain
- 6.5 for3.3 against
Data
Match statistics
The data used by the model. Unavailable data is shown as such, never replaced by an estimate.
Recent form
Key: W win, D draw, L loss. Last five matches, oldest to most recent.
Home / Away
- Marseille
- 1W 0D 1L at home
- Paris Saint-Germain
- 1W 2D 0L away
Head-to-head
Last 4 meetings: 1 Marseille win(s), 0 draw(s), 3 Paris Saint-Germain win(s)
Goals scored
Average per match.
Goals conceded
Average per match.
Expected goals (xG)
Data unavailable
Average xG per match.
Absentees
Data not available
AI analysis
What the model says
Prono Data probabilities: 13% for Marseille, 17% for the draw, 71% for Paris Saint-Germain. They come from the bookmaker consensus with the margin removed and the favourite / longshot bias corrected: the best calibrated reference in our tests. Expected goals: 1.0 for Marseille, 2.6 for Paris Saint-Germain. Most likely scores: 1-2 (9%), 0-2 (9%), 1-3 (8%). Over 2.5 goals at 71%, both teams to score at 61%. As a second opinion, our team model (goals and shots on target, time weighted) gives 32% / 26% / 43%. It differs from the market by 28 points on a Paris Saint-Germain win (more cautious). Historically, when the two disagree, the market is right more often: we show it as a signal worth digging into, not as a bet. Recent form: Marseille W-W-L-L-L, 1.5 scored and 1.5 conceded per game, 5.0 shots on target; Paris Saint-Germain L-D-D-L-W, 1.5 scored and 1.5 conceded, 6.5 shots on target. Last 4 meetings: 1 Marseille win(s), 0 draw(s), 3 Paris Saint-Germain win(s). No price beats the fair price by at least 2.5%: no tracked bet on this match. The favourite is a Paris Saint-Germain win.
Scenarios
Possible scenarios
- 1
Most likely scenario (71%): Paris Saint-Germain control the game and win, in an open match with goals at both ends.
- 2
Draw scenario (17%): the two sides cancel each other out; an outcome not to dismiss.
- 3
Upset scenario (13%): Marseille capitalise on an early goal or a weak spell from Paris Saint-Germain.
Compute my stake for this bet
The calculator will be pre-filled with odds of 1.43 and the 71 % probability of outcome 2 · PSG. You set your bankroll and strategy.
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