Aston Villa vs Manchester City: AI analysis
Analyses are for information only and do not guarantee any result.
AI probabilities
Confidence level
Moderate score: the signals point the same way but some indicators are missing or diverge. Read with caution.
Odds
Odds movement · 2 · MCI
Data unavailable
Expected goals
The match in goals
Goal expectations fitted to the final probabilities (1X2 and over/under 2.5), then turned into markets that are consistent with one another. The fair price has no margin: any higher price is value.
Most likely correct scores
Each cell shows the probability of that score (rows AVL, columns MCI). Beyond 5 goals per team: 2.6%.
Expected goals
Expected total: 3.3 goalsDerived markets
| Market | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 85% | 1.18 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 64% | 1.57 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 36% | 2.76 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 42% | 2.40 |
| Both teams to score | 61% | 1.65 |
| AVL keep a clean sheet | 12% | 8.55 |
| MCI keep a clean sheet | 32% | 3.13 |
| AVL win by 2+ goals | 7.4% | 13.51 |
| MCI win by 2+ goals | 37% | 2.67 |
Market consensus versus team model
The corrected consensus is our reference probability. The team model (goals and shots on target, time weighted) is a second opinion.
15-point gap on Manchester City: the model is more cautious than the market. Across 4,806 tested matches, following the model against the market lost money. Read it as a lead for analysis, not as a bet.
Over / under 2.5 goals
| Market | Probability | Fair odds | Best odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 64% | 1.57 | 1.55 | -1,2 % |
| Under 2.5 goals | 36% | 2.76 | 2.55 | -7,5 % |
Shots on target per game
- Aston Villa
- 3.1 for4.4 against
- Manchester City
- 5.3 for4.1 against
Odds checker
Is your price a value bet?
Enter the odds offered by your platform or bookmaker. We compare them with the fair odds for this match.
- Probability
- 19.0%
- Fair odds
- 5.26
Value is an estimated long-run statistical edge, not a guarantee on any single bet.
Data
Match statistics
The data used by the model. Unavailable data is shown as such, never replaced by an estimate.
Recent form
Key: W win, D draw, L loss. Last five matches, oldest to most recent.
Home / Away
- Aston Villa
- 0W 1D 2L at home
- Manchester City
- 3W 0D 0L away
Head-to-head
Last 4 meetings: 3 Aston Villa win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 Manchester City win(s)
Goals scored
Average per match.
Goals conceded
Average per match.
Expected goals (xG)
Data unavailable
Average xG per match.
Absentees
Data not available
AI analysis
What the model says
Prono Data probabilities: 19% for Aston Villa, 21% for the draw, 60% for Manchester City. They come from the bookmaker consensus with the margin removed and the favourite / longshot bias corrected: the best calibrated reference in our tests. Expected goals: 1.1 for Aston Villa, 2.1 for Manchester City. Most likely scores: 1-2 (10%), 1-1 (10%), 0-2 (9%). Over 2.5 goals at 64%, both teams to score at 61%. As a second opinion, our team model (goals and shots on target, time weighted) gives 29% / 26% / 45%. It differs from the market by 15 points on a Manchester City win (more cautious). Historically, when the two disagree, the market is right more often: we show it as a signal worth digging into, not as a bet. Recent form: Aston Villa D-L-W-D-W, 1.0 scored and 1.6 conceded per game, 3.1 shots on target; Manchester City W-W-W-W-W, 2.7 scored and 1.0 conceded, 5.3 shots on target. Last 4 meetings: 3 Aston Villa win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 Manchester City win(s). No price beats the fair price by at least 2.5%: no tracked bet on this match. Most likely outcome: a Manchester City win.
Scenarios
Possible scenarios
- 1
Most likely scenario (60%): Manchester City control the game and win, in an open match with goals at both ends.
- 2
Draw scenario (21%): the two sides cancel each other out; an outcome not to dismiss.
- 3
Upset scenario (19%): Aston Villa capitalise on an early goal or a weak spell from Manchester City.
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