Newcastle vs Aston Villa: AI analysis
Analyses are for information only and do not guarantee any result.
AI probabilities
Confidence level
High score: the available signals (form, odds, statistics) clearly converge. This qualifies the consistency of the analysis, not a probability of winning.
Odds
Odds movement · 1 · NEW
Data unavailable
Expected goals
The match in goals
Goal expectations fitted to the final probabilities (1X2 and over/under 2.5), then turned into markets that are consistent with one another. The fair price has no margin: any higher price is value.
Most likely correct scores
Each cell shows the probability of that score (rows NEW, columns AVL). Beyond 5 goals per team: 1.3%.
Expected goals
Expected total: 3.1 goalsDerived markets
| Market | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 83% | 1.21 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 1.66 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 40% | 2.51 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 38% | 2.65 |
| Both teams to score | 63% | 1.58 |
| NEW keep a clean sheet | 24% | 4.17 |
| AVL keep a clean sheet | 19% | 5.38 |
| NEW win by 2+ goals | 23% | 4.39 |
| AVL win by 2+ goals | 15% | 6.71 |
Market consensus versus team model
The corrected consensus is our reference probability. The team model (goals and shots on target, time weighted) is a second opinion.
The team model and the market agree within 2 points: the reading of the match is stable.
Over / under 2.5 goals
| Market | Probability | Fair odds | Best odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 1.66 | 1.65 | -0,9 % |
| Under 2.5 goals | 40% | 2.50 | 2.38 | -5,0 % |
Shots on target per game
- Newcastle
- 4.0 for5.7 against
- Aston Villa
- 3.2 for5.0 against
Odds checker
Is your price a value bet?
Enter the odds offered by your platform or bookmaker. We compare them with the fair odds for this match.
- Probability
- 42.7%
- Fair odds
- 2.34
Value is an estimated long-run statistical edge, not a guarantee on any single bet.
Data
Match statistics
The data used by the model. Unavailable data is shown as such, never replaced by an estimate.
Recent form
Key: W win, D draw, L loss. Last five matches, oldest to most recent.
Home / Away
- Newcastle
- 1W 2D 0L at home
- Aston Villa
- 1W 1D 1L away
Head-to-head
Last 4 meetings: 1 Newcastle win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 Aston Villa win(s)
Goals scored
Average per match.
Goals conceded
Average per match.
Expected goals (xG)
Data unavailable
Average xG per match.
Absentees
Data not available
AI analysis
What the model says
Prono Data probabilities: 43% for Newcastle, 25% for the draw, 32% for Aston Villa. They come from the bookmaker consensus with the margin removed and the favourite / longshot bias corrected: the best calibrated reference in our tests. Expected goals: 1.7 for Newcastle, 1.4 for Aston Villa. Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%). Over 2.5 goals at 60%, both teams to score at 63%. As a second opinion, our team model (goals and shots on target, time weighted) gives 44% / 25% / 31%. It is in line with the market on this match. Recent form: Newcastle W-D-L-W-L, 1.7 scored and 2.2 conceded per game, 4.0 shots on target; Aston Villa L-D-L-W-D, 1.0 scored and 1.8 conceded, 3.2 shots on target. Last 4 meetings: 1 Newcastle win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 Aston Villa win(s). No price beats the fair price by at least 2.5%: no tracked bet on this match. Most likely outcome: a Newcastle win.
Scenarios
Possible scenarios
- 1
Most likely scenario (43%): Newcastle control the game and win, in an open match with goals at both ends.
- 2
Draw scenario (25%): the two sides cancel each other out; an outcome not to dismiss.
- 3
Upset scenario (32%): Aston Villa capitalise on an early goal or a weak spell from Newcastle.
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