Aston Villa vs Brentford: AI analysis
Analyses are for information only and do not guarantee any result.
AI probabilities
Confidence level
High score: the available signals (form, odds, statistics) clearly converge. This qualifies the consistency of the analysis, not a probability of winning.
Odds
Odds movement · 2 · BRE
Bookmaker odds for outcome 2 over 2 readings: from 2.54 to 2.54.
Expected goals
The match in goals
Goal expectations fitted to the final probabilities (1X2 and over/under 2.5), then turned into markets that are consistent with one another. The fair price has no margin: any higher price is value.
Most likely correct scores
Each cell shows the probability of that score (rows AVL, columns BRE). Beyond 5 goals per team: 0.7%.
Expected goals
Expected total: 3.0 goalsDerived markets
| Market | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 81% | 1.24 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 1.77 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 43% | 2.30 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34% | 2.92 |
| Both teams to score | 61% | 1.65 |
| AVL keep a clean sheet | 23% | 4.44 |
| BRE keep a clean sheet | 23% | 4.31 |
| AVL win by 2+ goals | 18% | 5.71 |
| BRE win by 2+ goals | 18% | 5.43 |
Market consensus versus team model
The corrected consensus is our reference probability. The team model (goals and shots on target, time weighted) is a second opinion.
4-point gap on Brentford: the model is more cautious than the market. Across 4,806 tested matches, following the model against the market lost money. Read it as a lead for analysis, not as a bet.
Over / under 2.5 goals
| Market | Probability | Fair odds | Best odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 1.77 | 1.73 | -2,3 % |
| Under 2.5 goals | 44% | 2.30 | 2.20 | -4,2 % |
Shots on target per game
- Aston Villa
- 2.4 for5.2 against
- Brentford
- 4.6 for4.6 against
Data
Match statistics
The data used by the model. Unavailable data is shown as such, never replaced by an estimate.
Recent form
Key: W win, D draw, L loss. Last five matches, oldest to most recent.
Home / Away
- Aston Villa
- 0W 0D 2L at home
- Brentford
- 0W 2D 0L away
Head-to-head
Last 4 meetings: 2 Aston Villa win(s), 0 draw(s), 2 Brentford win(s)
Goals scored
Average per match.
Goals conceded
Average per match.
Expected goals (xG)
Data unavailable
Average xG per match.
Absentees
Data not available
AI analysis
What the model says
Prono Data probabilities: 36% for Aston Villa, 27% for the draw, 37% for Brentford. They come from the bookmaker consensus with the margin removed and the favourite / longshot bias corrected: the best calibrated reference in our tests. Expected goals: 1.5 for Aston Villa, 1.5 for Brentford. Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-2 (8%), 2-1 (8%). Over 2.5 goals at 57%, both teams to score at 61%. As a second opinion, our team model (goals and shots on target, time weighted) gives 39% / 28% / 33%. It differs from the market by 4 points on a Brentford win (more cautious). Historically, when the two disagree, the market is right more often: we show it as a signal worth digging into, not as a bet. Recent form: Aston Villa L-L-D-L-W, 0.8 scored and 1.8 conceded per game, 2.4 shots on target; Brentford W-D-D-D-W, 2.0 scored and 0.8 conceded, 4.6 shots on target. Last 4 meetings: 2 Aston Villa win(s), 0 draw(s), 2 Brentford win(s). No price beats the fair price by at least 2.5%: no tracked bet on this match. Most likely outcome: a Brentford win.
Scenarios
Possible scenarios
- 1
Most likely scenario (37%): Brentford control the game and win, in an open match with goals at both ends.
- 2
Draw scenario (27%): the two sides cancel each other out; an outcome not to dismiss.
- 3
Upset scenario (36%): Aston Villa capitalise on an early goal or a weak spell from Brentford.
Compute my stake for this bet
The calculator will be pre-filled with odds of 2.60 and the 37 % probability of outcome 2 · BRE. You set your bankroll and strategy.
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