Paderborn vs Hamburg: AI analysis
Analyses are for information only and do not guarantee any result.
AI probabilities
Confidence level
High score: the available signals (form, odds, statistics) clearly converge. This qualifies the consistency of the analysis, not a probability of winning.
Odds
Odds movement · 1 · PAD
Data unavailable
Expected goals
The match in goals
Goal expectations fitted to the final probabilities (1X2 and over/under 2.5), then turned into markets that are consistent with one another. The fair price has no margin: any higher price is value.
Most likely correct scores
Each cell shows the probability of that score (rows PAD, columns HSV). Beyond 5 goals per team: 0.9%.
Expected goals
Expected total: 3.1 goalsDerived markets
| Market | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 82% | 1.22 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 1.64 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 39% | 2.57 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 39% | 2.58 |
| Both teams to score | 63% | 1.60 |
| PAD keep a clean sheet | 23% | 4.29 |
| HSV keep a clean sheet | 18% | 5.49 |
| PAD win by 2+ goals | 23% | 4.39 |
| HSV win by 2+ goals | 15% | 6.58 |
Market consensus versus team model
The corrected consensus is our reference probability. The team model (goals and shots on target, time weighted) is a second opinion.
5-point gap on Hamburg: the model is more cautious than the market. Across 4,806 tested matches, following the model against the market lost money. Read it as a lead for analysis, not as a bet.
Over / under 2.5 goals
| Market | Probability | Fair odds | Best odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% | 1.63 | 1.58 | -2,9 % |
| Under 2.5 goals | 39% | 2.60 | 2.40 | -7,5 % |
Shots on target per game
- Paderborn
- 3.0 for6.3 against
- Hamburg
- 3.7 for5.7 against
Odds checker
Is your price a value bet?
Enter the odds offered by your platform or bookmaker. We compare them with the fair odds for this match.
- Probability
- 42.7%
- Fair odds
- 2.34
Value is an estimated long-run statistical edge, not a guarantee on any single bet.
Data
Match statistics
The data used by the model. Unavailable data is shown as such, never replaced by an estimate.
Recent form
Key: W win, D draw, L loss. Last five matches, oldest to most recent.
Home / Away
- Paderborn
- 1W 0D 2L at home
- Hamburg
- 1W 0D 2L away
Head-to-head
Data unavailable
Goals scored
Average per match.
Goals conceded
Average per match.
Expected goals (xG)
Data unavailable
Average xG per match.
Absentees
Data not available
AI analysis
What the model says
Prono Data probabilities: 43% for Paderborn, 25% for the draw, 32% for Hamburg. They come from the bookmaker consensus with the margin removed and the favourite / longshot bias corrected: the best calibrated reference in our tests. Expected goals: 1.7 for Paderborn, 1.5 for Hamburg. Most likely scores: 1-1 (10%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%). Over 2.5 goals at 61%, both teams to score at 63%. As a second opinion, our team model (goals and shots on target, time weighted) gives 47% / 26% / 27%. It differs from the market by 5 points on a Hamburg win (more cautious). Historically, when the two disagree, the market is right more often: we show it as a signal worth digging into, not as a bet. Recent form: Paderborn L-L-W-L-D, 0.8 scored and 1.5 conceded per game, 3.0 shots on target; Hamburg L-L-W-W-W, 1.0 scored and 2.5 conceded, 3.7 shots on target. No price beats the fair price by at least 2.5%: no tracked bet on this match. Most likely outcome: a Paderborn win.
Scenarios
Possible scenarios
- 1
Most likely scenario (43%): Paderborn control the game and win, in an open match with goals at both ends.
- 2
Draw scenario (25%): the two sides cancel each other out; an outcome not to dismiss.
- 3
Upset scenario (32%): Hamburg capitalise on an early goal or a weak spell from Paderborn.
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The calculator will be pre-filled with odds of 2.30 and the 43 % probability of outcome 1 · PAD. You set your bankroll and strategy.
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