Freiburg vs Schalke 04: AI analysis
Analyses are for information only and do not guarantee any result.
AI probabilities
Confidence level
High score: the available signals (form, odds, statistics) clearly converge. This qualifies the consistency of the analysis, not a probability of winning.
Odds
Odds movement · 1 · SCF
Bookmaker odds for outcome 1 over 3 readings: from 1.64 to 1.64.
Expected goals
The match in goals
Goal expectations fitted to the final probabilities (1X2 and over/under 2.5), then turned into markets that are consistent with one another. The fair price has no margin: any higher price is value.
Most likely correct scores
Each cell shows the probability of that score (rows SCF, columns SCH). Beyond 5 goals per team: 2.0%.
Expected goals
Expected total: 3.1 goalsDerived markets
| Market | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 82% | 1.22 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 1.67 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 40% | 2.50 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 38% | 2.66 |
| Both teams to score | 58% | 1.73 |
| SCF keep a clean sheet | 34% | 2.92 |
| SCH keep a clean sheet | 13% | 7.63 |
| SCF win by 2+ goals | 36% | 2.75 |
| SCH win by 2+ goals | 7.0% | 14.29 |
Market consensus versus team model
The corrected consensus is our reference probability. The team model (goals and shots on target, time weighted) is a second opinion.
The team model and the market agree within 3 points: the reading of the match is stable.
Over / under 2.5 goals
| Market | Probability | Fair odds | Best odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 1.66 | 1.62 | -2,7 % |
| Under 2.5 goals | 40% | 2.50 | 2.38 | -5,0 % |
Shots on target per game
- Freiburg
- 6.5 for2.3 against
- Schalke 04
- 4.3 for6.8 against
Data
Match statistics
The data used by the model. Unavailable data is shown as such, never replaced by an estimate.
Recent form
Key: W win, D draw, L loss. Last five matches, oldest to most recent.
Home / Away
- Freiburg
- 2W 0D 0L at home
- Schalke 04
- 1W 0D 1L away
Head-to-head
Data unavailable
Goals scored
Average per match.
Goals conceded
Average per match.
Expected goals (xG)
Data unavailable
Average xG per match.
Absentees
Data not available
AI analysis
What the model says
Prono Data probabilities: 59% for Freiburg, 23% for the draw, 18% for Schalke 04. They come from the bookmaker consensus with the margin removed and the favourite / longshot bias corrected: the best calibrated reference in our tests. Expected goals: 2.0 for Freiburg, 1.1 for Schalke 04. Most likely scores: 1-1 (10%), 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (9%). Over 2.5 goals at 60%, both teams to score at 58%. As a second opinion, our team model (goals and shots on target, time weighted) gives 56% / 25% / 18%. It is in line with the market on this match. Recent form: Freiburg W-W-W-W-D, 3.0 scored and 0.8 conceded per game, 6.5 shots on target; Schalke 04 L-D-W-D, 0.8 scored and 1.0 conceded, 4.3 shots on target. No price beats the fair price by at least 2.5%: no tracked bet on this match. Most likely outcome: a Freiburg win. Caution: at least one team has few observed matches, so the model's second opinion is fragile.
Scenarios
Possible scenarios
- 1
Most likely scenario (59%): Freiburg control the game and win, in an open match with goals at both ends.
- 2
Draw scenario (23%): the two sides cancel each other out; an outcome not to dismiss.
- 3
Upset scenario (18%): Schalke 04 capitalise on an early goal or a weak spell from Freiburg.
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