Mainz vs Bayer Leverkusen: AI analysis
Analyses are for information only and do not guarantee any result.
AI probabilities
Confidence level
Moderate score: the signals point the same way but some indicators are missing or diverge. Read with caution.
Odds
Odds movement · 2 · B04
Bookmaker odds for outcome 2 over 2 readings: from 2.17 to 2.17.
Expected goals
The match in goals
Goal expectations fitted to the final probabilities (1X2 and over/under 2.5), then turned into markets that are consistent with one another. The fair price has no margin: any higher price is value.
Most likely correct scores
Each cell shows the probability of that score (rows M05, columns B04). Beyond 5 goals per team: 1.7%.
Expected goals
Expected total: 3.5 goalsDerived markets
| Market | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 87% | 1.15 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 1.48 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 33% | 3.07 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 46% | 2.19 |
| Both teams to score | 68% | 1.47 |
| M05 keep a clean sheet | 15% | 6.49 |
| B04 keep a clean sheet | 20% | 4.95 |
| M05 win by 2+ goals | 16% | 6.21 |
| B04 win by 2+ goals | 24% | 4.10 |
Market consensus versus team model
The corrected consensus is our reference probability. The team model (goals and shots on target, time weighted) is a second opinion.
13-point gap on Bayer Leverkusen: the model is more cautious than the market. Across 4,806 tested matches, following the model against the market lost money. Read it as a lead for analysis, not as a bet.
Over / under 2.5 goals
| Market | Probability | Fair odds | Best odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 68% | 1.48 | 1.48 | -0,1 % |
| Under 2.5 goals | 33% | 3.07 | 2.88 | -6,3 % |
Shots on target per game
- Mainz
- 6.3 for3.3 against
- Bayer Leverkusen
- 6.3 for3.5 against
Data
Match statistics
The data used by the model. Unavailable data is shown as such, never replaced by an estimate.
Recent form
Key: W win, D draw, L loss. Last five matches, oldest to most recent.
Home / Away
- Mainz
- 0W 1D 1L at home
- Bayer Leverkusen
- 0W 1D 1L away
Head-to-head
Last 4 meetings: 0 Mainz win(s), 2 draw(s), 2 Bayer Leverkusen win(s)
Goals scored
Average per match.
Goals conceded
Average per match.
Expected goals (xG)
Data unavailable
Average xG per match.
Absentees
Data not available
AI analysis
What the model says
Prono Data probabilities: 32% for Mainz, 24% for the draw, 44% for Bayer Leverkusen. They come from the bookmaker consensus with the margin removed and the favourite / longshot bias corrected: the best calibrated reference in our tests. Expected goals: 1.6 for Mainz, 1.9 for Bayer Leverkusen. Most likely scores: 1-1 (10%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (7%). Over 2.5 goals at 67%, both teams to score at 68%. As a second opinion, our team model (goals and shots on target, time weighted) gives 44% / 25% / 31%. It differs from the market by 13 points on a Bayer Leverkusen win (more cautious). Historically, when the two disagree, the market is right more often: we show it as a signal worth digging into, not as a bet. Recent form: Mainz W-D-W-L-W, 2.5 scored and 1.5 conceded per game, 6.3 shots on target; Bayer Leverkusen D-L-W-D-W, 2.5 scored and 1.3 conceded, 6.3 shots on target. Last 4 meetings: 0 Mainz win(s), 2 draw(s), 2 Bayer Leverkusen win(s). No price beats the fair price by at least 2.5%: no tracked bet on this match. Most likely outcome: a Bayer Leverkusen win.
Scenarios
Possible scenarios
- 1
Most likely scenario (44%): Bayer Leverkusen control the game and win, in an open match with goals at both ends.
- 2
Draw scenario (24%): the two sides cancel each other out; an outcome not to dismiss.
- 3
Upset scenario (32%): Mainz capitalise on an early goal or a weak spell from Bayer Leverkusen.
Compute my stake for this bet
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