Augsburg vs Bayern Munich: AI analysis
Analyses are for information only and do not guarantee any result.
AI probabilities
Confidence level
Low score: the signals are contradictory or incomplete. The analysis is published for transparency, without any particular conviction.
Odds
Odds movement · 2 · FCB
Bookmaker odds for outcome 2 over 2 readings: from 1.17 to 1.17.
Expected goals
The match in goals
Goal expectations fitted to the final probabilities (1X2 and over/under 2.5), then turned into markets that are consistent with one another. The fair price has no margin: any higher price is value.
Most likely correct scores
Each cell shows the probability of that score (rows FCA, columns FCB). Beyond 5 goals per team: 18%.
Expected goals
Expected total: 4.9 goalsDerived markets
| Market | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 96% | 1.04 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 87% | 1.15 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 13% | 7.46 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 72% | 1.39 |
| Both teams to score | 66% | 1.51 |
| FCA keep a clean sheet | 2.3% | 43.48 |
| FCB keep a clean sheet | 33% | 3.08 |
| FCA win by 2+ goals | 2.2% | 45.45 |
| FCB win by 2+ goals | 69% | 1.45 |
Market consensus versus team model
The corrected consensus is our reference probability. The team model (goals and shots on target, time weighted) is a second opinion.
26-point gap on Bayern Munich: the model is more cautious than the market. Across 4,806 tested matches, following the model against the market lost money. Read it as a lead for analysis, not as a bet.
Over / under 2.5 goals
| Market | Probability | Fair odds | Best odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 87% | 1.16 | 1.15 | -0,4 % |
| Under 2.5 goals | 13% | 7.45 | 6.00 | -19,4 % |
Shots on target per game
- Augsburg
- 7.3 for7.3 against
- Bayern Munich
- 8.8 for2.0 against
Data
Match statistics
The data used by the model. Unavailable data is shown as such, never replaced by an estimate.
Recent form
Key: W win, D draw, L loss. Last five matches, oldest to most recent.
Home / Away
- Augsburg
- 1W 1D 0L at home
- Bayern Munich
- 1W 1D 0L away
Head-to-head
Last 4 meetings: 1 Augsburg win(s), 0 draw(s), 3 Bayern Munich win(s)
Goals scored
Average per match.
Goals conceded
Average per match.
Expected goals (xG)
Data unavailable
Average xG per match.
Absentees
Data not available
AI analysis
What the model says
Prono Data probabilities: 7% for Augsburg, 9% for the draw, 84% for Bayern Munich. They come from the bookmaker consensus with the margin removed and the favourite / longshot bias corrected: the best calibrated reference in our tests. Expected goals: 1.1 for Augsburg, 3.8 for Bayern Munich. Most likely scores: 1-3 (8%), 1-4 (7%), 0-3 (7%). Over 2.5 goals at 87%, both teams to score at 66%. As a second opinion, our team model (goals and shots on target, time weighted) gives 21% / 20% / 58%. It differs from the market by 25 points on a Bayern Munich win (more cautious). Historically, when the two disagree, the market is right more often: we show it as a signal worth digging into, not as a bet. Recent form: Augsburg L-W-W-D-L, 2.8 scored and 1.5 conceded per game, 7.3 shots on target; Bayern Munich W-W-D-W-W, 3.5 scored and 0.5 conceded, 8.8 shots on target. Last 4 meetings: 1 Augsburg win(s), 0 draw(s), 3 Bayern Munich win(s). No price beats the fair price by at least 2.5%: no tracked bet on this match. Most likely outcome: a Bayern Munich win.
Scenarios
Possible scenarios
- 1
Most likely scenario (84%): Bayern Munich control the game and win, in an open match with goals at both ends.
- 2
Draw scenario (9%): the two sides cancel each other out; an outcome not to dismiss.
- 3
Upset scenario (7%): Augsburg capitalise on an early goal or a weak spell from Bayern Munich.
Compute my stake for this bet
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