Paderborn vs Hoffenheim: AI analysis
Analyses are for information only and do not guarantee any result.
AI probabilities
Confidence level
Low score: the signals are contradictory or incomplete. The analysis is published for transparency, without any particular conviction.
Odds
Odds movement · 2 · TSG
Bookmaker odds for outcome 2 over 2 readings: from 1.65 to 1.65.
Expected goals
The match in goals
Goal expectations fitted to the final probabilities (1X2 and over/under 2.5), then turned into markets that are consistent with one another. The fair price has no margin: any higher price is value.
Most likely correct scores
Each cell shows the probability of that score (rows PAD, columns TSG). Beyond 5 goals per team: 2.9%.
Expected goals
Expected total: 3.6 goalsDerived markets
| Market | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 88% | 1.14 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 69% | 1.45 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 31% | 3.23 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 48% | 2.10 |
| Both teams to score | 66% | 1.52 |
| PAD keep a clean sheet | 11% | 9.52 |
| TSG keep a clean sheet | 27% | 3.68 |
| PAD win by 2+ goals | 8.7% | 11.49 |
| TSG win by 2+ goals | 37% | 2.69 |
Market consensus versus team model
The corrected consensus is our reference probability. The team model (goals and shots on target, time weighted) is a second opinion.
19-point gap on Hoffenheim: the model is more cautious than the market. Across 4,806 tested matches, following the model against the market lost money. Read it as a lead for analysis, not as a bet.
Over / under 2.5 goals
| Market | Probability | Fair odds | Best odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 69% | 1.45 | 1.45 | -0,2 % |
| Under 2.5 goals | 31% | 3.21 | 3.00 | -6,5 % |
Shots on target per game
- Paderborn
- 1.0 for5.7 against
- Hoffenheim
- 5.7 for4.5 against
Data
Match statistics
The data used by the model. Unavailable data is shown as such, never replaced by an estimate.
Recent form
Key: W win, D draw, L loss. Last five matches, oldest to most recent.
Home / Away
- Paderborn
- 0W 0D 1L at home
- Hoffenheim
- 0W 0D 1L away
Head-to-head
Data unavailable
Goals scored
Average per match.
Goals conceded
Average per match.
Expected goals (xG)
Data unavailable
Average xG per match.
Absentees
Data not available
AI analysis
What the model says
Prono Data probabilities: 21% for Paderborn, 21% for the draw, 58% for Hoffenheim. They come from the bookmaker consensus with the margin removed and the favourite / longshot bias corrected: the best calibrated reference in our tests. Expected goals: 1.3 for Paderborn, 2.3 for Hoffenheim. Most likely scores: 1-2 (9%), 1-1 (9%), 0-2 (7%). Over 2.5 goals at 69%, both teams to score at 66%. As a second opinion, our team model (goals and shots on target, time weighted) gives 29% / 31% / 40%. It differs from the market by 19 points on a Hoffenheim win (more cautious). Historically, when the two disagree, the market is right more often: we show it as a signal worth digging into, not as a bet. Recent form: Paderborn D-L-L, 0.0 scored and 1.3 conceded per game, 1.0 shots on target; Hoffenheim W-L-L-L-W, 1.6 scored and 2.1 conceded, 5.7 shots on target. No price beats the fair price by at least 2.5%: no tracked bet on this match. The favourite is a Hoffenheim win. Caution: at least one team has few observed matches, so the model's second opinion is fragile.
Scenarios
Possible scenarios
- 1
Most likely scenario (58%): Hoffenheim control the game and win, in an open match with goals at both ends.
- 2
Draw scenario (21%): the two sides cancel each other out; an outcome not to dismiss.
- 3
Upset scenario (21%): Paderborn capitalise on an early goal or a weak spell from Hoffenheim.
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