Game Plan: compute your stake and track your bankroll
A stake is decided before the bet, not after. Enter your bankroll, the odds and your estimated probability, pick a strategy and log every bet in your journal to track ROI, win rate and drawdown.
Sports betting involves a risk of financial loss. For adults only.
Stake calculator
Recommended stake based on your bankroll, the odds, your probability and your strategy.
Recommended stake
0,00 €
0,00 % of bankroll · edge -0,3 % · Kelly 0,0 %
No value detected: Kelly recommends a stake of 0. Your probability (54,0 %) does not exceed the implied probability of the odds (54,3 %).
Pre-fills the odds and stake in the journal below.
Bet journal
Saved in this browser only. No data is sent anywhere.
Your journal is empty.
Add each bet with its odds and stake, then update the result. ROI, win rate and drawdown are computed automatically from your own data.
Choose
Which strategy should you pick?
Six modes, from the simplest to the most responsive. All are capped by your maximum risk per bet.
Flat stake
- Principle
- Same amount on every bet.
- When to use it
- Getting started, or betting on very homogeneous markets.
- Risk
- Low as long as the amount is small relative to the bankroll. Does not adapt to losses.
% of bankroll
- Principle
- Constant percentage of the current bankroll.
- When to use it
- Simple, sustainable management without estimating a probability.
- Risk
- Moderate. The stake shrinks mechanically during a losing streak.
Kelly Criterion
- Principle
- Optimal fraction f* = (b·p − q) / b based on your edge.
- When to use it
- Well-calibrated probabilities, large sample.
- Risk
- High. Very sensitive to an overestimated probability.
Fractional Kelly (½)
- Principle
- Half of the Kelly fraction.
- When to use it
- Common trade-off between growth and volatility.
- Risk
- Moderate. About three quarters of Kelly's growth for far lower variance.
Conservative mode
- Principle
- Minimum of 1% of bankroll and Kelly / 4.
- When to use it
- Learning, periods of doubt, testing a method.
- Risk
- Low. Slow growth but the bankroll is protected.
Dynamic mode
- Principle
- Capped Kelly / 2, halved if the edge is below 2%.
- When to use it
- Regular value betting with variable edges.
- Risk
- Moderate. Automatically reduces exposure on marginal value bets.
FAQ
Frequently asked questions
About the calculator, the journal and the formulas used.
Most money management approaches stay between 1% and 3% of the bankroll per bet. The calculator applies this cap to every strategy: even Kelly cannot exceed the maximum risk you have set.
Because your estimated probability does not exceed the implied probability of the odds (1 / odds). Without a positive edge, Kelly and its variants return 0: betting would mean playing at a negative expectation.
No. The journal is stored in your browser only (localStorage) and is never transmitted. You can export it as CSV at any time, or clear everything. Clearing your browser data also clears the journal.
It is the largest drop between a peak of the bankroll curve and the trough that follows it, expressed in euros and as a percentage of the peak. It measures the worst period you went through, regardless of the final result.
Apply your management on a funded account
Funded account platforms enforce drawdown and maximum stake rules. Disciplined stake management is the first requirement to pass a challenge.